Johor State Election Advanced Dashboard

Interactive forecast tracker with advanced simulator, marginal seats, confidence ranges, change log, sources and bilingual view.

2026F PH
28
Largest bloc, 1 seat short of majority.
2026F BN
24
Second bloc with formation route if supported.
2026F PN/PAS/Bersatu
4
Potential kingmaker bloc.
Majority line
29
56-seat Johor Assembly.

Scenario simulator

This is a sensitivity tool, not polling. It shows how assumptions move the seat projection.

Simulated result

Path to 29

Live route-to-majority calculator

Explain this scenario

Probability gauge

Scenario-adjusted probability estimate

These are model probabilities from the current scenario sliders, not survey probabilities.

Monte Carlo outcome forecast

Runs randomised elections around the current slider settings to estimate how often each government-formation outcome occurs.

How to read this: the bars show the share of simulated elections ending in each outcome. The highest bar is the most common path, not a guarantee.
PH route BN route PAS/PN route Hung / unstable

Seat risk heatmap

Visual risk grouping of key seats

Confidence range

Low / midpoint / high

Daily prediction chart

PH BN PN/PAS/Bersatu Others 29-seat majority

Marginal seats watchlist

Seats most likely to decide 28 vs 29

Margins are working model indicators based on prior constituency results and swing sensitivity. They are not official 2026 polling.

Past election results since 2000 + 2026F

2026 forecast chart

Past results table

2026 component forecast

Updates behind the latest forecast

Why the model moved to PH 28 | BN 24 | PN/PAS 4

Forecast change log

Sources and data provenance

Historical data + modelling assumptions
Primary historical election data

Historical seat and vote figures are derived from public election-result compilations based on SPR and constituency-level result tables.

Historical election references
Current political context and turnout assumptions
Forecast model inputs created in this project

2026F values are not official polling. They are modelled from historical vote-seat conversion, 2022 turnout anomaly, GE15 Johor latent vote pool, Saturday polling, outstation/Singapore returnees, Undi18 voters, social-media sentiment, PAS-UMNO risk, BN machinery, PH internal risk, third-force splitting and seat arithmetic.